Analyzing the relationship between air pollution and asthma outpatient visits in Hefei through time series data

Xiaofeng Wu, Xinmiao Sui, Shu Sun, Jiyu Cao

Article ID: 1988
Vol 3, Issue 1, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54517/ps.v3i1.1988
Received: 22 April 2022; Accepted: 16 May 2022; Available online: 27 May 2022;
Issue release: 31 December 2022

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Abstract

Objective: To examine the correlation between the volume of adult asthma patients seeking outpatient care and air pollution levels at a hospital in Hefei. Methods: Data on the number of asthma outpatients at a Hefei hospital from 2014 to 2020 were gathered, along with corresponding air pollution and meteorological data for the same timeframe. The R statistical software was employed to construct a generalized additive model to assess the lagged effects of air pollution on asthma outpatient numbers. Results: The hospital recorded a total of 7220 asthma outpatients during the study period, with 3104 males and 4116 females, 3798 in the warm season and 3422 in the cold season. The single pollutant model revealed that a 10% increase in SO2 concentration μg/m3 was associated with a 0.74% increase in asthma risk, with the strongest effect observed at lag2. NO2 was found to increase asthma risk by 0.31%, with the most significant impact at lag0. The two-pollutant model indicated that the effect of SO2 combined with NO2 diminished when SO2 was also combined with CO, O3, PM10, and PM2, with an increased post-5 lag effect. Conversely, the effect of NO2 combined with SO2 decreased when NO2 was also combined with CO, PM10, and PM2, with an increased post-5 lag effect. Stratified analysis by season showed that NO2's impact on asthma was greatest at lag0 during the cold season, while SO2's effect was more pronounced in the cold season than in the warm season, with the highest impact at lag2. Gender stratification analysis revealed that the effects of SO2 and NO2 were greater in men than in women. Conclusion: Between 2014 and 2020, an increase in SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Hefei was positively associated with the risk of asthma among outpatients at the hospital, with a noticeable lag effect. This finding underscores the importance of developing targeted preventive strategies to mitigate asthma occurrences and exacerbations.


Keywords

air pollution; Asthma diseases; time series analysis; outpatient volume; generalized additive model


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