The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry stocks returns in Mauritius. Evidence from quantile regression analysis

Sheereen Fauzel

Article ID: 2414
Vol 4, Issue 2, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54517/st.v4i2.2414
Received: 6 October 2023; Accepted: 18 November 2023; Available online: 23 December 2023; Issue release: 30 December 2023

VIEWS - 548 (Abstract)

Download PDF

Abstract

The tourism industry has been severely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in Mauritius, where this industry is the backbone of the economy. Just like tourism revenue, tourism returns are also expected to be affected. Hence, this paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on tourism returns in Mauritius by using a quantile regression model and daily data from 18 March to 30 June 2020. The results show that the COVID-19 variables used in the study impact negatively on tourism stock returns. For instance, it is observed that COVID-19 confirmed cases exert negative effects on tourism returns at higher quantiles. Similar results were obtained for COVID-19 recovered cases. Also, a positive link was found between the government response stringency index and tourism returns. However, stock volatility is observed to reduce the industry’s return. This paper further provides useful insights for policymakers, investors, and managers in the tourism industry.


Keywords

COVID-19; tourism returns; quantile regression; Mauritius


References

1. Statistics Mauritius. Digest of International Travel and Tourism Statistics. Statistics Mauritius; 2017.

2. Ashraf BN. Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 2020; 27: 100371. doi: 10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371

3. Barbhuiya MR, Chatterjee D. Vulnerability and resilience of the tourism sector in India: Effects of natural disasters and internal conflict. Tourism Management Perspectives 2020; 33: 100616. doi: 10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100616

4. Liu Y, Cheng X, Liao SS, et al. The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality industry: Evidence from international stock markets. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 2023; 64: 101875. doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101875

5. Toksoz D, Dalgic A. Vulnerability and resilience of tourism: Recovery plans and strategies of countries. In: Resilient and Sustainable Destinations After Disaster. Emerald Publishing Limited; 2023. pp. 195–211. doi: 10.1108/978-1-80382-021-720231014

6. Ding W, Levine R, Lin C. Xie W. Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Financial Economics 2021; 141(2): 802–830. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.005

7. Abbas J. Crisis management, transnational healthcare challenges and opportunities: The intersection of COVID-19 pandemic and global mental health. Research in Globalization 2021; 3: 100037. doi: 10.1016/j.resglo.2021.100037

8. Jones CL, Jensen JD, Scherr CL, et al. The health belief model as an explanatory framework in communication research: Exploring parallel, serial, and moderated mediation. Health Communication 2014; 30(6): 566–576. doi: 10.1080/10410236.2013.873363

9. Avery E. Contextual and audience moderators of channel selection and message reception of public health information in routine and crisis situations. Journal of Public Relations Research 2010; 22(4): 378–403. doi: 10.1080/10627261003801404

10. Aman J, Abbas J, Mahmood S, et al. The influence of Islamic religiosity on the perceived socio-cultural impact of sustainable tourism development in Pakistan: A structural equation modeling approach. Sustainability 2019; 11(11): 3039. doi: 10.3390/su11113039

11. Bauer A, Garman E, McDaid D, et al. Integrating youth mental health into cash transfer programmes in response to the COVID-19 crisis in low-income and middle-income countries. The Lancet Psychiatry 2021; 8(4): 340–346. doi: 10.1016/s2215-0366(20)30382-5

12. Park S, Boatwright B, Johnson Avery E. Information channel preference in health crisis: Exploring the roles of perceived risk, preparedness, knowledge, and intent to follow directives. Public Relations Review 2019; 45(5): 101794. doi: 10.1016/j.pubrev.2019.05.015

13. Su Z, McDonnell D, Wen J, et al. Mental health consequences of COVID-19 media coverage: The need for effective crisis communication practices. Globalization and Health 2021; 17(1). doi: 10.1186/s12992-020-00654-4

14. Hu B, Zhang D. Channel selection and knowledge acquisition during the 2009 Beijing H1N1 flu crisis: A media system dependency theory perspective. Chinese Journal of Communication 2014; 7(3): 299–318. doi: 10.1080/17544750.2014.926951

15. Reynolds B, Seeger MW. Crisis and emergency risk communication as an integrative model. Journal of Health Communication 2005; 10(1): 43–55. doi: 10.1080/10810730590904571

16. Tonsaker T, Bartlett G, Trpkov C. Health information on the Internet: Gold mine or minefield? Canadian Family Physician 2014; 60(5): 407–408.

17. Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza? Nature Medicine 2006; 12(5): 497–499. doi: 10.1038/nm0506-497

18. Abbott A. COVID’s mental-health toll: How scientists are tracking a surge in depression. Nature 2021; 590(7845): 194–195. doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00175-z

19. Zhong B, Huang Y, Liu Q. Mental health toll from the coronavirus: Social media usage reveals Wuhan residents’ depression and secondary trauma in the COVID-19 outbreak. Computers in Human Behavior 2021; 114: 106524. doi: 10.1016/j.chb.2020.106524

20. Li Y, Wang X, Lin X, et al. Seeking and sharing health information on social media: A net valence model and cross-cultural comparison. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2018; 126: 28–40. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.021

21. Chen MH. The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events. International Journal of Hospitality Management 2011; 30(1): 200–212. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2010.06.005

22. Chen MH, Jang S (Shawn), Kim WG. The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality Management 2007; 26(1): 200–212. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2005.11.004

23. Zopiatis A, Savva CS, Lambertides N, et al. Tourism stocks in times of crisis: An econometric investigation of unexpected nonmacroeconomic factors. Journal of Travel Research 2018; 58(3): 459–479. doi: 10.1177/0047287517753998

24. Liu H, Manzoor A, Wang C, et al. The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2020; 17(8): 2800. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17082800

25. Al-Awadhi AM, Alsaifi K, Al-Awadhi A, et al. Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 2020; 27: 100326. doi: 10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326

26. Zhang D, Hu M, Ji Q. Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters 2020; 36: 101528. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528

27. Manjula Bai H. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. ComFin Research 2020; 8(4): 8–17. doi: 10.34293/commerce.v8i4.3293

28. Sigala M. Tourism and COVID-19: Impacts and implications for advancing and resetting industry and research. Journal of Business Research 2020; 117: 312–321. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.015

29. Osuji E, Evans O. Tourism effects of pandemics: New insights from novel coronavirus. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business 2020; 70(3–4): 56–65.

30. Lee CC, Chen MP. The impact of COVID-19 on the travel and leisure industry returns: Some international evidence. Tourism Economics 2020; 28(2): 451–472. doi: 10.1177/1354816620971981

31. Li Y, Liang C, Ma F, Wang J. The role of the IDEMV in predicting European stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance research letters 2020; 36: 101749. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101749

32. Tran BL, Chen CC, Tseng WC, et al. Tourism under the early phase of COVID-19 in four APEC economies: An estimation with special focus on SARS experiences. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2020; 17(20): 7543. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17207543

33. Kizys R, Tzouvanas P, Donadelli M. From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions. SSRN Electronic Journal 2020. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3597354

34. Zaremba A, Kizys R, Tzouvanas P, et al. The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 2021; 71: 101284. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101284

35. Chiang T, Li J. Stock returns and risk: Evidence from quantile. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 2012; 5(1): 20–58. doi: 10.3390/jrfm5010020

36. Koenker R, Basset GW. Regression quantile. Econometrica 1978; 46(1): 33–50. doi: 10.2307/1913643

37. Assaf AG, Tsionas M. The estimation and decomposition of tourism productivity. Tourism Management 2018; 65: 131–142.

38. Baur DG, Dimpfl T, Jung RC. Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach. Journal of Empirical Finance 2012; 19(2): 254–265. doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2011.12.002

39. Koenker R. Quantile Regression. Cambridge University Press; 2005. Volume 38.

40. Xu L. Stock return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US. Finance Research Letters 2021; 38: 101872. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101872

41. Ashraf BN. Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance 2020; 54: 101249. doi: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249

42. Wu G. The determinants of asymmetric volatility. Review of Financial Studies 2001; 14(3): 837–859. doi: 10.1093/rfs/14.3.837

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2023 Sheereen Fauzel

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).