Mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics: Mass rape and the use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP)

Abdelkadir Muzey Mohammed, Habtu Alemayehu Astbaha, Yohannes Yirga Kefela, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Kiros Tedla Gebrehiwot

Article ID: 3811
Vol 3, Issue 3, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54517/mss3811
Received: 10 June 2025; Accepted: 5 August 2025; Available online: 30 August 2025; Issue release: 30 September 2025


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Abstract

This study presents a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS, with a particular focus on mass rape as a significant driver of new infections and the mitigating effects of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and antiretroviral (ARV) treatments. The model explicitly incorporates intensity of rape into the transmission framework and assesses the impact of PEP in reducing new HIV infections. Analytical results include the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions, equilibrium points, the basic reproduction number ( ), and global stability conditions for both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Numerical simulations are performed to support and illustrate the analytical findings. The results reveal a linear relationship between the incidences of rape and while showing an inverse relationship between PEP coverage and , indicating that timely and widespread PEP administration can significantly reduce HIV transmission, especially in regions affected by sexual violence. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that combined intervention strategies involving both PEP and ARV treatments produce synergistic effects, substantially suppressing HIV transmission. These findings emphasize the importance of integrated treatment strategies over isolated interventions. Despite the substantial impact of these interventions, the model suggests that the disease remains endemic under certain conditions. By explicitly integrating conflict-related factors, particularly mass rape and treatment disruption, this model provides a novel, evidence-based framework for informing policy in humanitarian emergencies. It enables global health actors to prioritize interventions and allocate limited resources more effectively.


Keywords

HIV/AIDS; conflict related rape; PEP: ARV; mathematical modeling; stability analysis


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