


Mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics: Mass rape and the use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP)
Vol 3, Issue 3, 2025
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Abstract
This study presents a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS, with a particular focus on mass rape as a significant driver of new infections and the mitigating effects of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and antiretroviral (ARV) treatments. The model explicitly incorporates intensity of rape into the transmission framework and assesses the impact of PEP in reducing new HIV infections. Analytical results include the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions, equilibrium points, the basic reproduction number ( ), and global stability conditions for both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Numerical simulations are performed to support and illustrate the analytical findings. The results reveal a linear relationship between the incidences of rape and while showing an inverse relationship between PEP coverage and , indicating that timely and widespread PEP administration can significantly reduce HIV transmission, especially in regions affected by sexual violence. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that combined intervention strategies involving both PEP and ARV treatments produce synergistic effects, substantially suppressing HIV transmission. These findings emphasize the importance of integrated treatment strategies over isolated interventions. Despite the substantial impact of these interventions, the model suggests that the disease remains endemic under certain conditions. By explicitly integrating conflict-related factors, particularly mass rape and treatment disruption, this model provides a novel, evidence-based framework for informing policy in humanitarian emergencies. It enables global health actors to prioritize interventions and allocate limited resources more effectively.
Keywords
References
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Copyright (c) 2025 Abdelkadir Muzey Mohammed, Habtu Alemayehu Astbaha, Yohannes Yirga Kefela, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Kiros Tedla Gebrehiwot

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Editor-in-Chief

Prof. Youssri Hassan Youssri
Cairo University, Egypt
Asia Pacific Academy of Science Pte. Ltd. (APACSCI) specializes in international journal publishing. APACSCI adopts the open access publishing model and provides an important communication bridge for academic groups whose interest fields include engineering, technology, medicine, computer, mathematics, agriculture and forestry, and environment.

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