Co-dynamics of measles and hand-foot-mouth disease

This study develops two compartmental models to analyze the co-dynamics between measles and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD): a four-compartment model and a seven-compartment HFMD-Measles co-infection model. For the four-compartment model, we systematically analyzed the co-dynamics of measles and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and employed the next-generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproduction number of measles and that of HFMD. Through the analytical study of these two types of basic reproduction numbers, we rigorously determined the existence of the disease equilibrium points, with their quantitative relationship were clearly illustrated through graphical representations. The global asymptotic stability of these equilibria is established by applying LaSalle invariance principle, with stability regions of the four equilibrium points precisely defined. The analysis reveals that within the stability region of the disease-free equilibrium, both diseases will eventually die out, preventing any outbreaks. In the stability region corresponding to the measles equilibrium, HFMD is eliminated while measles remains endemic. Conversely, in the stability region of the HFMD-only equilibrium, measles dies out whereas HFMD persists. Finally, within the stability region of the coexistence equilibrium, both diseases persist and become endemic. Numerical simulations further validate the consistency and reliability of these theoretical results. For the seven-compartment infectious disease model, we calculated the basic reproduction number and verified the threshold theorem. We derived the conditions for both local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. In particular, the disease-free equilibrium is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and we also provided conditions for its global stability. Model validation is performed by fitting empirical data from China on HFMD and measles cases.

Keywords

co-infection; basic reproduction number; LaSalle invariance principle; global asymptotic stability

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