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2024
2021
Assessing the impact of climatic factors on the trade performance of South African maize commodity
Article ID: 1613
Vol 1, Issue 1, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54517/vfc.v1i1.1613
Vol 1, Issue 1, 2021
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Abstract
The maize commodity is of strategic significance to the South African economy as it is a stable commodity and therefore a key factor for food security. In recent times climate change has impacted on the productivity of this commodity and this has impacted trade negatively. This paper explores the intricate relationship between climatic factors and trade performance for the South African maize. Secondary annual time series data spanning 2001 to 2023, was sourced from an abstract from Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) and World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique was used as an empirical model to assess the long-term and short-term relationships between explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Results of the ARDL model show that, average annual rainfall (β = 2.184, p = 0.056), fertilizer consumption (β = 1.919, p = 0.036), gross value of production (β = 1.279 , p = 0.006) and average annual surface temperature (β = −0.650, p = 0.991) and change in temperature for previous years, (β = −0.650, p = 0.991) and the effects towards coefficient change for export volumes, (β = 0.669, p = 0.0007). In overall, as a recommendation, South African policymakers should consider these findings when developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of some of these climatic factors and implementing adaptive strategies for maize producers.
Keywords
ARDL model; maize; bound test; trade performance; South Africa
References
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News & Announcements
2024-03-07
The Global Value Chain Development Report 2021 has been Officially Released
On November 16, 2021, the third Global Value Chain Development Report, “Global Value Chain Development Report 2021: Beyond Production,” organized by the Global Value Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, was officially released. This online press conference is hosted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), with Asian Development Bank economist Elisabetta Gentile presiding over the event. Masatsugu Asakawa, President of the Asian Development Bank, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iwaala, Director General of the World Trade Organization, delivered speeches and gave high praise to the third development report.